Pair #1281

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-BCAM

Valspar Championship: Will Brian Campbell finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Brian Campbell
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6184

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Campbell finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-BCAM

Valspar Championship: Will Brian Campbell finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Brian Campbell
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1343

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Campbell finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:22:36Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — a top-20 finish could be 11th-20th.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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