Pair #12808

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 27515

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-LABE

The Open Championship: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 863

YES ask: 0.8500
NO ask: 0.6500
Last: 0.5700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-PREE] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] Winning any major (e.g. Masters) does not require a top40 finish at The Open specifically.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -74.21% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8500 + ~$0.0089 est. fees
Days to maturity: 167
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -78.63% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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