Pair #12806

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-SBUR

Will Sam Burns win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1090537

YES ask: 0.0180
NO ask: 0.9830
Last: 0.0180

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Rules

If Sam Burns wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SBUR

Will Sam Burns finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 243

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Burns records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH/KXPGATOUR-THOC26-SSCH] Winning the tournament means having the lowest overall score, which necessarily includes being the lowest among American finishers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -96.52% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0330 + ~$0.0045 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -100.75% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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