Pair #12805

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SBUR

Will Sam Burns finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 243

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-SBUR

Will Sam Burns lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 44866

YES ask: 0.0150
NO ask: 0.9860
Last: 0.0180

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH/KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-SSCH] A Round 1 lead has no bearing on the final top American finisher.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -91.35% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0050 + ~$0.0017 est. fees
Days to maturity: 1
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -95.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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