Pair #12802

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SBUR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22028

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SBUR

Will Sam Burns finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 243

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSCH/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH] Scheffler could win a different major (not the Open) without being top American there.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -8.93% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0040 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -13.37% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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