Pair #1280

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-BCAM

Valspar Championship: Will Brian Campbell finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Brian Campbell
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1343

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Campbell finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-BCAM

Valspar Championship: Will Brian Campbell make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Brian Campbell
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 759

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Campbell makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:22:36Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 requires having made the cut — you cannot finish in the top 20 without surviving the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top-20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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