Pair #12799

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 94908

YES ask: 0.0290
NO ask: 0.9790
Last: 0.0290

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1595

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-SSCH/KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-SSCH] Leading after round 2 does not require having led after round 1, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -50.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0290 + ~$0.0048 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -55.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue