Pair #12797

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1595

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MFIT

The Open Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 20136

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.3700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-SSCH/KXPGATOP10-THOC26-SSCH] Leading after round 2 does not guarantee a top-10 finish (could fade), and a top-10 finish does not require having led after round 2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.91% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3700 + ~$0.0163 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.14% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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