Pair #12796

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MFIT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28432

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1595

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSCH/KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-SSCH] Winning any major does not require leading The Open Championship after Round 2, since the win could come from a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -1.43% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000 + ~$0.0067 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -5.87% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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