Pair #12793

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-SSCH

The Open Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4318

YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-SSCH

The Open Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 9278

YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 0.1300
Last: 0.8700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MJOR] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6600 + ~$0.0194 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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