Pair #12790

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-SSCH

The Open Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 23712

YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.5200
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-SSCH

The Open Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4318

YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.80% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3300 + ~$0.0282 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.03% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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