Pair #1279

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-BCAM

Will Brian Campbell win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Brian Campbell
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12182

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brian Campbell wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-BCAM

Valspar Championship: Will Brian Campbell finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Brian Campbell
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1343

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brian Campbell finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:22:36Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valspar Championship means finishing 1st, which is necessarily a top-20 finish. The reverse does not hold — a top-20 finish does not mean he wins.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue