Pair #12789

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXOWGRRANK-26AUGT20-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Aug 3, 2026?

Series: KXOWGRRANK
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-03T14:00:00Z
Volume: 220

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler is ranked in the top 20 (including ties) on the Official World Golf Ranking on August 3rd, 2026 at 10:00am EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-SSCH

The Open Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4318

YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXOWGRRANK-26AUGT20-RMCI/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-RMCI] OWGR ranking and Open Championship finish are unrelated events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7800 + ~$0.0128 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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