Pair #12784

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1410131

YES ask: 0.0250
NO ask: 0.9760
Last: 0.0250

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Rules

If Chris Gotterup wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 381

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Chris Gotterup records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH/KXPGATOUR-THOC26-SSCH] Winning the tournament means having the lowest overall score, which necessarily includes being the lowest among American finishers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -84.06% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0160 + ~$0.0043 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -88.29% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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