Pair #12782

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 381

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 47626

YES ask: 0.0170
NO ask: 0.9840
Last: 0.0160

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH/KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-SSCH] A Round 1 lead has no bearing on the final top American finisher.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9870 + ~$0.0032 est. fees
Days to maturity: 1
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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