Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-CGOT
Will Chris Gotterup finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 381
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Chris Gotterup records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-THOC26-CGOT
The Open Championship: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 28967
YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.3500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH/KXPGATOP20-THOC26-SSCH] Top 20 finish does not guarantee being the top American finisher.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-100.00%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.3200
+ ~$0.0180 est. fees
Days to maturity:
1
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-104.23%
BELOW HURDLE