Pair #12780

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 381

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 269

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH/KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-SSCH] A Round 2 lead does not guarantee the best final score among Americans.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.52% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0047 est. fees
Days to maturity: 1
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.75% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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