Pair #1278

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-BCAM

Valspar Championship: Will Brian Campbell finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Brian Campbell
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1343

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Campbell finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-BCAM

Will Brian Campbell win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Brian Campbell
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1755692

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Campbell wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:22:36Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 at the Valspar has no logical connection to winning the Masters. These are entirely separate tournaments. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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