Pair #12771

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-TKIM

The Open Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11112

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-TKIM

The Open Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3644

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.85% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3500 + ~$0.0273 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.08% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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