Pair #12763

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-TKIM

The Open Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 10383

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-TKIM

The Open Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3644

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2200 + ~$0.0322 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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