Pair #1276

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-KSTR

Valspar Championship: Will Kevin Streelman make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Kevin Streelman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1451

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Kevin Streelman makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-KSTR

Valspar Championship: Will Kevin Streelman finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Kevin Streelman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1040

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Kevin Streelman finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:22:36Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not imply a top-10 finish (could finish 11th or lower), and a top-10 finish does imply making the cut but that direction (top-10 → make cut) is a logical necessity. Wait — actually top 10 DOES imply making the cut. Reassessing: finishing top 10 requires having made the cut, so KXPGATOP10 → KXPGAMAKECUT. But the question asks about A→B and B→A. A=makecut, B=top10: makecut does not imply top10; top10 does imply makecut, so B→A holds.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.8900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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