Pair #12755

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MWLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5773

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MLEE

The Open Championship: Will Min Woo Lee make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 443

YES ask: 0.7000
NO ask: 0.3200
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CSMI/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-CSMI] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-RMAC] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-LABE] Making the cut at The Open doesn't imply a major win, and a major win could happen at a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -68.64% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6900 + ~$0.0154 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -73.08% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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