Pair #12753

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JSPI

Will Jordan Spieth win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2217462

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9910
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Jordan Spieth wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-JSPI

Will Jordan Spieth finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 624

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jordan Spieth records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH/KXPGATOUR-THOC26-SSCH] Winning the tournament means having the lowest overall score, which necessarily includes being the lowest among American finishers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -88.16% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0210 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -92.39% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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