Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-JSPI
Will Jordan Spieth finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 624
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jordan Spieth records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JSPI
Will Jordan Spieth lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 21982
YES ask: 0.0110
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0110
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jordan Spieth is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH/KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-SSCH] A Round 1 lead has no bearing on the final top American finisher.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-59.13%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0010
+ ~$0.0015 est. fees
Days to maturity:
1
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-63.36%
BELOW HURDLE