Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-JSPI
Will Jordan Spieth finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 624
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jordan Spieth records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JSPI
The Open Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8055
YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH/KXPGATOP20-THOC26-SSCH] Top 20 finish does not guarantee being the top American finisher.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-100.00%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.2100
+ ~$0.0127 est. fees
Days to maturity:
1
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-104.23%
BELOW HURDLE