Pair #12749

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-JSPI

Will Jordan Spieth finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 624

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JSPI

The Open Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 10111

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH/KXPGATOP10-THOC26-SSCH] Another American could outscore Scheffler while both finish top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000 + ~$0.0075 est. fees
Days to maturity: 1
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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