Pair #12747

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-STHE

The Open Championship: Will Sahith Theegala finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7029

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-STHE

The Open Championship: Will Sahith Theegala finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 284

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.50% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2800 + ~$0.0188 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.73% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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