Pair #12742

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-STHE

The Open Championship: Will Sahith Theegala finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 284

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-STHE

The Open Championship: Will Sahith Theegala make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 402

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MJOR] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5400 + ~$0.0192 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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