Pair #12740

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-STHE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 7523

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-STHE

The Open Championship: Will Sahith Theegala make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 402

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CSMI/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-CSMI] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-RMAC] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-LABE] Making the cut at The Open doesn't imply a major win, and a major win could happen at a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -63.35% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5700 + ~$0.0172 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -67.79% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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