Pair #12737

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 627

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-TFLE

The Open Championship: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4879

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-SSCH/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-SSCH] Leading after round 2 does not guarantee a top-5 finish, and a top-5 finish does not require having led after round 2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.05% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2300 + ~$0.0124 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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