Pair #12736

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 627

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1238380

YES ask: 0.0540
NO ask: 0.9470
Last: 0.0540

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-SSCH/KXPGATOUR-THOC26-SSCH] Leading after round 2 does not guarantee winning the tournament, since the outcome can change over the final rounds.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -69.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0540 + ~$0.0036 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -74.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue