Pair #12729

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JBRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2637

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JBRI

Will Jacob Bridgeman lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1069

YES ask: 0.0070
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0070

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CSMI/KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-CSMI] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHEN/KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-RHEN] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE/KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-PREE] Winning a major doesn't require leading after Round 1 of the Open (could win a different major or come from behind), and leading Round 1 doesn't guarantee winning the tournament or any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -1.61% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0070 + ~$0.0005 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -6.05% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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