Pair #12727

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-BDEC

The Open Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 18944

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-BDEC

The Open Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1190

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP40-THOC26-RMCI/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-RMCI] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top5 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.81% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3400 + ~$0.0207 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.04% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue