Pair #12723

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PCAN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3988

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-PCAN

The Open Championship: Will Patrick Cantlay finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2761

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CSMI/KXPGATOP20-THOC26-CSMI] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE/KXPGATOP20-THOC26-PREE] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BCAU/KXPGATOP20-THOC26-BCAU] Winning any major doesn't require winning/placing top20 specifically at The Open Championship, since he could win a different major instead.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -44.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3000 + ~$0.0157 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -49.34% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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