Pair #12720

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-JRAH

Jon Rahm to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?

Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 276

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JRAH

The Open Championship: Will Jon Rahm make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 594

YES ask: 0.7800
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.7800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-CSMI/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-CSMI] [structural reuse of KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-BDEC/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-BDEC] Competing in a LIV event in Q1 2027 and making the cut at the 2026 Open Championship are unrelated events with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -50.26% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6200 + ~$0.0214 est. fees
Days to maturity: 259
Hurdle yield: 4.48%
Excess yield: -54.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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