Pair #12715

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-RFOW

The Open Championship: Will Rickie Fowler finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 244

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-RFOW

The Open Championship: Will Rickie Fowler make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 395

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.3800
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MJOR] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6000 + ~$0.0184 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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