Pair #12712

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-RFOW

The Open Championship: Will Rickie Fowler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 12164

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-RFOW

The Open Championship: Will Rickie Fowler finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 244

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.84% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3500 + ~$0.0236 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.07% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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