Pair #12710

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RFOW

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1169

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-RFOW

The Open Championship: Will Rickie Fowler finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3094

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-PREE] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JRAH] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SLOW/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-SLOW] Winning any major (possibly not The Open Championship) doesn't guarantee a top 5 finish there, and a top 5 finish there doesn't guarantee a major win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -12.60% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600 + ~$0.0039 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -17.04% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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