Pair #12709

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RFOW

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1169

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-RFOW

The Open Championship: Will Rickie Fowler make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 395

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.3800
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CSMI/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-CSMI] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-RMAC] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE/KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-LABE] Making the cut at The Open doesn't imply a major win, and a major win could happen at a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -66.15% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6300 + ~$0.0163 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -70.59% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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