Pair #12708

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-CYOU

Will Cameron Young finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 202

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-CAME

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Young finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1131

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-SSCH] Another American could finish higher in the top 5, so a top 5 finish doesn't guarantee top American status.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1100 + ~$0.0081 est. fees
Days to maturity: 1
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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