Pair #12704

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-CYOU

Will Cameron Young finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 202

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-CAME

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Young finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8502

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH/KXPGATOP20-THOC26-SSCH] Top 20 finish does not guarantee being the top American finisher.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3100 + ~$0.0159 est. fees
Days to maturity: 1
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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