Pair #12699

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-CMOR

The Open Championship: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1076

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-CMOR

The Open Championship: Will Collin Morikawa make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 310

YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MJOR] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6900 + ~$0.0165 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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