Pair #12697

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-CMOR

The Open Championship: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 9376

YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-CMOR

The Open Championship: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1076

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.32% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1900 + ~$0.0331 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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