Pair #12695

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-CMOR

Will Collin Morikawa lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 407

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-CMOR

Will Collin Morikawa win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1208319

YES ask: 0.0270
NO ask: 0.9740
Last: 0.0270

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-SSCH/KXPGATOUR-THOC26-SSCH] Leading after round 2 does not guarantee winning the tournament, since the outcome can change over the final rounds.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -45.69% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0270 + ~$0.0018 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -49.92% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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