Pair #12691

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-CMOR

Will Collin Morikawa lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 407

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-CMOR

The Open Championship: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 14072

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-SSCH/KXPGATOP10-THOC26-SSCH] Leading after round 2 does not guarantee a top-10 finish (could fade), and a top-10 finish does not require having led after round 2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.87% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2200 + ~$0.0120 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.10% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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