Pair #1269

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-KSTR

Valspar Championship: Will Kevin Streelman make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Kevin Streelman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1451

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Kevin Streelman makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-KSTR

Will Kevin Streelman lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Kevin Streelman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12324

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Kevin Streelman is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:22:14Z

Reasoning: Leading after round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could theoretically lead R1 and still miss the cut after R2), and making the cut does not require leading after R1. In practice it is highly unlikely to lead R1 and miss the cut, but it is not a logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.8900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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