Pair #12688

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CMOR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22073

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-CMOR

Will Collin Morikawa lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 407

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSCH/KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-SSCH] Winning any major does not require leading The Open Championship after Round 2, since the win could come from a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -13.06% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600 + ~$0.0065 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -17.50% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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