Pair #12687

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-PHAR

The Open Championship: Will Padraig Harrington finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 773

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-PHAR

The Open Championship: Will Padraig Harrington finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 252

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP40-THOC26-RMCI/KXPGATOP5-THOC26-RMCI] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top5 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -97.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000 + ~$0.0112 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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