Pair #12685

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-PHAR

The Open Championship: Will Padraig Harrington finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 252

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-PHAR

The Open Championship: Will Padraig Harrington make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 3248

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.6000
Last: 0.4200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MJOR] [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.86% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3600 + ~$0.0210 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.09% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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