Pair #12684

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-PHAR

Will Padraig Harrington lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1404

YES ask: 0.0040
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-PHAR

The Open Championship: Will Padraig Harrington finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 252

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top40 finish due to possible collapse or withdrawal.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.34% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1990 + ~$0.0113 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.57% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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